PML-N Leads PaJK Elections Amid Boycott, Rigging Allegations, Violence and Major Political Upsets

MUZAFFARABAD: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has emerged as the dominant party in the 2026 Legislative Assembly elections in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, but the electoral process remains incomplete nearly three weeks after voting began, with seven constituencies yet to go to polls and re-polling ordered at 23 polling stations in two closely contested Bagh seats.

The elections, originally scheduled across the territory for July 27, were divided into three phases at the last moment, with the Election Commission citing security concerns. Mirpur Division voted on July 27, Muzaffarabad Division and the 12 refugee constituencies on August 2, while Poonch Division was scheduled to vote on August 10.

However, only four of Poonch Division’s 11 constituencies eventually went to the polls on August 10. Voting in five constituencies of Poonch district and two in Sudhnoti was postponed because of the continuing unrest, road closures and security situation. The Election Commission has indicated that polling could take place around August 20 or 21, though a final schedule had not been formally announced by Wednesday.

Reuters reported on August 12 that the PML-N had secured 25 seats, while the Pakistan Peoples Party had won 12, putting the PML-N in a commanding position to form the next government. The final composition of the 53-member Assembly, however, remains unsettled because several territorial results are incomplete and eight additional reserved seats are allocated after the directly elected members are returned.

The Assembly has 45 directly elected constituencies, 33 located within Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir and 12 representing refugees from Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir living across Pakistan. The latter have become one of the central political disputes surrounding the election, with the Joint Awami Action Committee demanding their abolition and arguing that they allow outside political influence over the formation of governments in the territory.

In the first phase, the PML-N won nine of the 13 seats in Mirpur Division, while the PPP took four. The result gave the PML-N an immediate advantage in Mirpur, Bhimber and Kotli.

One of the first major upsets came in LA-7 Bhimber-III, where former prime minister Chaudhry Anwar-ul-Haq lost to PML-N’s Chaudhry Tariq Farooq. Anwar-ul-Haq, who had served as prime minister before the current PPP administration, contested as an independent.

The first phase was also accompanied by allegations of irregularities, violence between rival party supporters and disputes over voter turnout. The PPP alleged ballot-box snatching and manipulation and later demanded re-polling in parts of Mirpur Division, while the PML-N rejected the allegations. Reuters reported that parties accused each other of ballot-box theft and vote rigging, while the Election Commission maintained that the process had not been affected by major irregularities.

Turnout itself became part of the dispute. Election authorities and PML-N leaders portrayed participation as substantial, while PPP leaders argued that overall polling in many areas was below 30 percent and questioned polling stations where reported turnout reached 75, 80 or even 90 percent.

The second phase strengthened the PML-N’s position further. Of the 21 seats covering Muzaffarabad Division and the refugee constituencies, the PML-N ultimately won 15 and the PPP six.

The most striking result within that phase came from the refugee constituencies: the PML-N won 10 of the 12 seats, while the PPP secured two. The result is politically significant because these are precisely the constituencies at the centre of the ongoing JKJAAC protest movement.

Polling in two Muzaffarabad constituencies, LA-27 and LA-28, had initially been postponed because heavy rain and landslides prevented election staff and material from reaching some polling stations. When voting was subsequently held, PML-N’s Noreen Arif won LA-27 by just 298 votes, while PPP’s Bazil Ali Naqvi secured LA-28.

The second phase again produced serious allegations from the PPP. The party accused PML-N workers of ballot stuffing, removing ballot boxes, illegally stamping ballot papers and preventing PPP polling agents from entering some polling stations. It said it had submitted at least 25 complaints to the Election Commission. PML-N rejected the accusations, while election officials said complaints were being investigated and addressed.

The election has also taken place without meaningful participation from the party that won the 2021 polls. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf boycotted the 2026 election, saying conditions did not allow for a free and fair contest. The JKJAAC separately called for a boycott as its supporters continued demonstrations against the refugee seats and other governance issues.

The third phase produced perhaps the election’s biggest political upset.

In LA-14 Dhirkot, Awami Dast-o-Baazo candidate Sajid Iqbal Abbasi defeated former prime minister and Muslim Conference president Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan by more than 21,000 votes. The constituency had been represented by Attique, his father or his uncle in every election since 1985, making the defeat a major break with nearly four decades of family political dominance.

Former prime minister Sardar Tanveer Ilyas, now heading the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party in the region, also failed to mount a serious challenge in Bagh Central, a constituency he had won in 2021 while contesting on a PTI ticket.

Meanwhile, incumbent Prime Minister Faisal Mumtaz Rathore of the PPP was declared successful from LA-17 Haveli, but his PML-N rival Chaudhry Mohsin Aziz rejected the result and demanded a recount, alleging discrepancies between results held by his campaign and those announced by the returning officer.

Two other Bagh results remain unresolved. The Election Commission has ordered re-polling at nine polling stations in LA-15 Bagh Central and 14 stations in LA-16 Bagh East on August 15. PPP’s Ziaul Qamar was leading PML-N’s Mushtaq Minhas in LA-15 before the order, while PML-N’s Sardar Mir Akbar held the lead over PPP’s Sardar Qamar-uz-Zaman in LA-16.

The election has unfolded alongside one of the most serious protest movements in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir in decades. The JKJAAC-led agitation, which began before polling over political representation and other demands, intensified around the first phase, with deadly clashes in Rawalakot and continuing shutdowns, internet restrictions and protests across several districts. Reuters reported that the movement said more than 30 people were killed around Rawalakot following the first phase, while the exact toll could not be independently verified because of restrictions on communications and media access.

The decision to hold voting in phases has itself attracted criticism. Because results from Mirpur were announced before Muzaffarabad voted, and the second-phase results were known before Poonch polling, critics argued that early results could influence voter behaviour and political alignments in later phases. Dawn noted that this was the first time a general election in the territory had been conducted in such a staggered format.

Despite the unresolved seats, the PML-N is now strongly positioned to return to power in Muzaffarabad. But the circumstances surrounding its expected victory, the PTI boycott, JKJAAC protests, the overwhelming PML-N success in the disputed refugee constituencies, competing rigging allegations, re-polling orders and the postponement of voting across much of Poonch, mean that the political contest is unlikely to end with the formation of a new government.

Seven constituencies in Rawalakot and Sudhnoti, among the areas most heavily affected by the protest movement, have still not voted. Their eventual polling will complete the 45 directly elected seats and provide the clearest measure yet of how the prolonged unrest has translated into electoral politics.