Public Opinion in Pakistan-Administered Jammu & Kashmir, the Demand for Independence, and State Policy: A Review of Survey Findings and International Reporting

Pakistan’s bureaucracy and ruling elite are widely believed by critics to be aware that a significant segment of the population in Pakistan-administered Jammu & Kashmir does not share the state’s official position on the Kashmir dispute. According to various independent opinion polls and research studies conducted over different periods, support for an independent and sovereign State of Jammu & Kashmir—including Ladakh and Gilgit—has remained substantial. Some reports have estimated this support to exceed 70 percent in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Critics argue that this helps explain why Pakistan’s diplomatic and political response following India’s revocation of Jammu & Kashmir’s special constitutional status on 5 August 2019 appeared comparatively restrained and, in their view, inconsistent with its longstanding position. They contend that if Pakistan genuinely advocates the Kashmiri people’s right to self-determination, it should also recognize and respect those political aspirations that favor complete independence rather than accession to either Pakistan or India.

Critics further allege that, in recent years, political activists, journalists, and nationalist groups expressing dissenting views in Pakistan-administered Jammu & Kashmir have increasingly faced restrictive measures. According to these allegations, arrests, enforced disappearances, political intimidation, the use of colonial-era laws, and, in certain cases, killings have been employed to strengthen state control over the region. Pakistani authorities have rejected or responded differently to various such allegations, and these issues continue to be the subject of political and human rights debate.

Independent Opinion Polls and Survey Reports

13 August 2007

According to a Reuters report, an opinion poll conducted in the Kashmir Valley found that 87 percent of respondents supported complete independence for Jammu & Kashmir.

18 April 2005

According to a report published by Dawn, more than 53 percent of respondents in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir expressed support for an independent Jammu & Kashmir.

27 May 2010

A BBC report, based on a survey conducted across both sides of the Line of Control involving approximately 3,700 respondents, found that around 50 percent supported complete independence for Jammu & Kashmir. The survey also highlighted significant regional variations in public opinion.

12 September 2010

According to The Express Tribune, citing survey findings, approximately two-thirds of respondents in Indian-administered Kashmir favored complete independence.

23 October 2019

According to a report by Deutsche Welle (DW), support for an independent Jammu & Kashmir and calls for self-determination had grown significantly in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

The 2016 Research Report and Subsequent Developments

In 2016, journalist Tanveer Ahmed published the findings of a multi-year research project in the newspaper Mujadala. The report claimed that more than 70 percent of the population in Pakistan-administered Jammu & Kashmir supported complete independence for the State of Jammu & Kashmir.

According to supporters of the report, Mujadala was subsequently banned, while its Editor-in-Chief Haris Qadeer and journalist Tanveer Ahmed were subjected to various restrictions. It has also been alleged that Tanveer Ahmed was later abducted. These allegations have likewise been raised by political activists and human rights advocates.

International Reporting and Human Rights Concerns

Beyond public opinion surveys, reports published by the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, the International Crisis Group, Deutsche Welle, BBC, Reuters, and other international organizations and media outlets indicate that political aspirations within the former princely State of Jammu & Kashmir are far from uniform.

While both India and Pakistan maintain that their respective positions reflect the aspirations of the Kashmiri people, numerous independent surveys and academic studies suggest that a significant segment of the population continues to support the idea of a fully independent and sovereign Jammu & Kashmir.

International human rights reports have also raised concerns regarding freedom of expression, political participation, electoral laws, restrictions on nationalist organizations, and actions taken against pro-independence activists in Pakistan-administered Jammu & Kashmir. At the same time, these reports have documented serious human rights concerns in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir, including restrictions on civil liberties, allegations of extrajudicial actions, prolonged detentions, and the extensive use of security powers.

Taken together, these findings reinforce the argument advanced by many analysts that any durable and peaceful resolution of the Jammu & Kashmir dispute must place the genuine political aspirations and the right to self-determination of all the people of the region at its center.

A broad range of international media organizations, polling institutions, and research publications suggests that public opinion regarding the future of Jammu & Kashmir remains diverse and cannot be reduced to a binary choice between India and Pakistan. Alongside support for accession to either country, the demand for complete independence has consistently remained a significant political position among sections of the population.

Accordingly, critics argue that a just, lasting, and democratic resolution of the Jammu & Kashmir dispute will only be possible if the authentic political aspirations of all regions of the former State of Jammu & Kashmir are allowed to be expressed freely and are given meaningful consideration.